Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Its a two horse race?

Its no great secret that my Lib dem opponent Mark Young and I get on well together. We had a few laughs in the general election when he stood as an Independent and I cannot say I was surprised when he joined the Lib Dems.

He recently posted about opinion polls and claimed the Lib dems were the second party of Wales. He based this on the result of the general election when the LIb dems won four Westminster seats (including Ceredigion from Plaid).

However he neglected to mention that Plaid have twice as many AM's, vastly more councillors and one MEP more than the Lib dems who have none in Wales.

The Assembly election is a "Welsh" election and Plaid will not be drowned out by the British media.

I am not sure Mark's prediction of a two horse race will come true but it certainly made me laugh when I read it.

If the result goes as I expect in Wales as a whole both the LIb dems and the Tories may have leadership problems. If the LIbs remain static on six seats then the tensions in their group will go public (or perhaps they will unite in blaming Lembit!) and if the Tories just swap list seats for constituency seats expect the "be more Welsh" approach to be abandoned and leader Nick Bourne ditched within minutes.


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